Five illustrative phases
- 01
Illustrative band · 0–5% aware
Origin
A fringe signal with unstable language and limited evidence.
Review prompt: Investigate sources and competing explanations; do not confuse novelty with truth.
- 02
Illustrative band · 5–20% aware
Amplification
Specialist coverage, early investment and repeated terminology appear.
Review prompt: Validate the signal and document what would disconfirm it.
- 03
Illustrative band · 20–60% aware
Consensus
The idea enters strategy decks and broad professional conversation.
Review prompt: Distinguish evidence from repetition and look for crowding.
- 04
Illustrative band · 60–80% aware
Inflection
The narrative is treated as settled and reversal risk may rise.
Review prompt: Stress-test assumptions and examine incentives behind the dominant story.
- 05
Illustrative band · Counter-narrative emerges
Reversal
Results disappoint, backlash develops or a new frame gains attention.
Review prompt: Reassess rather than automatically chasing either the old story or its opposite.
How to use the map
Collect evidence
- Where did the claim originate?
- Which sources repeat it independently?
- What commercial or institutional incentives shape it?
Challenge the placement
- What evidence would move it earlier or later?
- Which audience is actually being measured?
- What counter-narrative is already visible?
Example domains
AI adoption, remote work and Web3 can each be discussed through these phases, but their paths differ by audience, geography and time. Treat historical examples as prompts for analysis, not proof of a predictable sequence.
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